"The invention of new technology pushes functionality forward. It forces competition to innovate and find new product / market combinations outside day to day business."
The first personal media devices were introduced in the late 80’s. So called portable phones were available. They were large, they were heavy, they were ugly but they were the first tot deliver the promise of communication independent of time and/or place.
This apparently was so revolutionary that people took all the disadvantages for granted and started using the portable phones.
The new technology now overthrows the entire communications market. In the Netherlands the penetration of mobile devices is a staggering 102,9%. That is more devices than people!!
The innovations as seen in the market still lack too much direction to be certain of new dominant designs. Innovations can be seen in the areas of;
1. Basic machinery (Technology)
2. Business orientation (Business models)
3. Lifestyle orientation (Information distribution)
4. Entertainment (Leisure concepts)
But it seems evident that the ultimate personal media devices will emerge within the next 10 years. These are so personal that you will take carry them with you at all times (beach, bathroom, party, work, travel, etc). A nice current day example is the head band that transfer MP3 audio signals directly to the skull. Fantastic for outdoor activities under all sorts of conditions. Even swimming is possible.
I expect that these new media centres are to have functions like online music and video streams, Ability to project (wall, towel, paper etc.) and be hands free at all times.
Look for instance at the new Portable Play Station by Sony and realise yourself that this is just a first generation solution. Within 15 years at least two new generations will be introduced with superior technology, superior communication possibilities and superior and more diverse functionality. May be you can even read books online, chilling in you hammock.
Still a major shift in mobile devices lies ahead. Think of he promise that voice technology holds in using interactivity anywhere and anytime, without additional gadgets as keyboards, styluses.
This technology push will influence the interaction between media and its content on one side and the “consumer” on the other.
Technology has always enabled the rise of new media. The figure below shows the introduction of new technology and the resulting introduction of new or better media types.
ince the introduction of personal devices innovations have followed each other in rapid succession. What functionality will follow and how can old school media companies integrate this in their distribution channels. The life cycle theory states that there is still no dominant technical design in personal devices, not the machines themselves, nor the way they are connected. Wireless possibilities tumble over each other. ATF3, GSM, EDGE, UMTS. I’m sure that after these 3 generations a 4th and dominant distribution system will emerge with few providers to choose from. The same goes for the devices. From simple telephone to multifunctional device, incorporating a wide range of functionalities like; Telephone, Computer, Audio / Video player / TV, Book, Wallet, ID, Passport, Drivers license, Health records, etc.
In short all of you. Everything is possible. Fantastic in one way, a frightening thought in an other. Your complete profile stored in one place. The device will hold the key to everything. I will not go in to ‘Big Brother” discussions. But there is an urgent need for privacy legislation and privacy technology.
Technology push always behaves in the same fashion. In the period I was responsible for business development with a Dutch based ICT Company, we addressed the topic intensively. Central theorems were discontinuity and life cycle management. I will describe the latter in a separate chapter.
Discontinuity always follows the introduction of innovations. All supporting systems, all basic technology, all communication theory will be stirred up once more
But there is also good news. The introduction of new competition brings out the best in old school professionals. People hate change, they will find ways to defend themselves slowing the success of the new technology / medium.
Here’s a nice example
The introduction of a new energy source – electricity – took 60 years to overhaul steam technology in terms of market share. In these 60 years steam technology improved over 30% in efficiency. Something they hadn’t achieved in the 50 years before the introduction of electricity. Competition and new technology, an inspiration for us all.
Summary
Means : Expect strong and rapid innovation in the fields of infrastructure (the network), functionality (Webx.0 programs), and nodes (personal devices). Be cautious with investments and analyse the technology push and the status of life cycles. Best use lease constructions to service your digital needs.
Message : Show off your innovative actions, customers love it.
Media : There is no room for the introduction of new media left. May be holographic projection is one step further than second life and its look-a-likes. The information distribution network is complete but still limited in capacity.
The first personal media devices were introduced in the late 80’s. So called portable phones were available. They were large, they were heavy, they were ugly but they were the first tot deliver the promise of communication independent of time and/or place.
This apparently was so revolutionary that people took all the disadvantages for granted and started using the portable phones.
The new technology now overthrows the entire communications market. In the Netherlands the penetration of mobile devices is a staggering 102,9%. That is more devices than people!!
The innovations as seen in the market still lack too much direction to be certain of new dominant designs. Innovations can be seen in the areas of;
1. Basic machinery (Technology)
2. Business orientation (Business models)
3. Lifestyle orientation (Information distribution)
4. Entertainment (Leisure concepts)
But it seems evident that the ultimate personal media devices will emerge within the next 10 years. These are so personal that you will take carry them with you at all times (beach, bathroom, party, work, travel, etc). A nice current day example is the head band that transfer MP3 audio signals directly to the skull. Fantastic for outdoor activities under all sorts of conditions. Even swimming is possible.
I expect that these new media centres are to have functions like online music and video streams, Ability to project (wall, towel, paper etc.) and be hands free at all times.
Look for instance at the new Portable Play Station by Sony and realise yourself that this is just a first generation solution. Within 15 years at least two new generations will be introduced with superior technology, superior communication possibilities and superior and more diverse functionality. May be you can even read books online, chilling in you hammock.
Still a major shift in mobile devices lies ahead. Think of he promise that voice technology holds in using interactivity anywhere and anytime, without additional gadgets as keyboards, styluses.
This technology push will influence the interaction between media and its content on one side and the “consumer” on the other.
Technology has always enabled the rise of new media. The figure below shows the introduction of new technology and the resulting introduction of new or better media types.
ince the introduction of personal devices innovations have followed each other in rapid succession. What functionality will follow and how can old school media companies integrate this in their distribution channels. The life cycle theory states that there is still no dominant technical design in personal devices, not the machines themselves, nor the way they are connected. Wireless possibilities tumble over each other. ATF3, GSM, EDGE, UMTS. I’m sure that after these 3 generations a 4th and dominant distribution system will emerge with few providers to choose from. The same goes for the devices. From simple telephone to multifunctional device, incorporating a wide range of functionalities like; Telephone, Computer, Audio / Video player / TV, Book, Wallet, ID, Passport, Drivers license, Health records, etc.
In short all of you. Everything is possible. Fantastic in one way, a frightening thought in an other. Your complete profile stored in one place. The device will hold the key to everything. I will not go in to ‘Big Brother” discussions. But there is an urgent need for privacy legislation and privacy technology.
Technology push always behaves in the same fashion. In the period I was responsible for business development with a Dutch based ICT Company, we addressed the topic intensively. Central theorems were discontinuity and life cycle management. I will describe the latter in a separate chapter.
Discontinuity always follows the introduction of innovations. All supporting systems, all basic technology, all communication theory will be stirred up once more
But there is also good news. The introduction of new competition brings out the best in old school professionals. People hate change, they will find ways to defend themselves slowing the success of the new technology / medium.
Here’s a nice example
The introduction of a new energy source – electricity – took 60 years to overhaul steam technology in terms of market share. In these 60 years steam technology improved over 30% in efficiency. Something they hadn’t achieved in the 50 years before the introduction of electricity. Competition and new technology, an inspiration for us all.
Summary
Means : Expect strong and rapid innovation in the fields of infrastructure (the network), functionality (Webx.0 programs), and nodes (personal devices). Be cautious with investments and analyse the technology push and the status of life cycles. Best use lease constructions to service your digital needs.
Message : Show off your innovative actions, customers love it.
Media : There is no room for the introduction of new media left. May be holographic projection is one step further than second life and its look-a-likes. The information distribution network is complete but still limited in capacity.
1 comment:
Interesting to know.
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